{"id":114,"date":"2020-04-25T18:46:11","date_gmt":"2020-04-25T18:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bugaup.org\/bugauporchesterfieldevans\/?p=114"},"modified":"2021-01-26T09:41:06","modified_gmt":"2021-01-26T09:41:06","slug":"%ef%bb%bfcovid-19-origin-of-the-pandemic-19-4-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/?p=114","title":{"rendered":"\ufeffCOVID-19 Origin of the Pandemic 19\/4\/20"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t\t\t\t\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><br><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There has been a general\nacceptance that the COVID19 coronavirus came from the Wuhan Seafood market from\nsome of the wild animals there, with a pangolin, a type of scaly anteater.&nbsp; It was a wet market which means that species\nare sold there raw.&nbsp; This seemed more\nplausible than the various conspiracy theories that it was a biological weapon\neither gone feral or an error.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I tended to discount\nthese conspiracy theories, but stuff ups are more frequent than conspiracies\nand the evidence for one of the latter is actually quite strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are two viral\nresearch facilities in Wuhan. The Wuhan Institute of Virology is one of the\nbest in China, rated BSL-4 (Biological Security Level-4).&nbsp; It was 9 miles (15km) from the Wuhan Seafood\nMarket and was doing research on SARS viruses since 2011 after the epidemic in\n2004. &nbsp;It collected virus specimens from\nbat caves 1100 miles (1770km) away, and the energetic chief scientist, Dr Shi\nZengli was known as the \u2018Bat Woman\u2019 because of her enthusiasm to collect\nspecimens over the last 16 years.&nbsp; They were\ndoing research on bat coronaviruses including infecting piglets, and were\nhiring staff, publishing papers and testing disinfectants for the virus.&nbsp;&nbsp; Some US experts were concerned about the\nlevel of safety as chimeric SARS like viruses develop easily, i.e. minor\nchanges to the viral structure which give a different mutation.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the first patient\nspecimen was given to the laboratory on 30\/12\/19, Dr Shi was very concerned\nthat it may have escaped &nbsp;from her lab,\nand allegedly tested the genome sequence and found that it was not the same as\nthe one that she was working on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there was another\nvirology lab in Wuhan, the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control, (WCDC) which was\nonly 300 metres from the market, and was only rated BSL-2. A researcher from\nthere, Dr Botao Xiao, who had previously worked in the US postulated that the genome\nsequence was very similar to one that was being studied in WCDC.&nbsp; His paper was taken down from the web, and\nhis profile was also deleted from the WCDC website.&nbsp; WCDC had also done experiments on bats and\nsurgery on live animals.&nbsp; It was pointed\nout that as it was winter, bats hibernate, so the likelihood of an animal\ninfection getting to the market from the bat colony by natural migration was\nsmall.&nbsp; So the possibilities exist either\nthat some animals from the research facility went to the markets, perhaps sold\nfor extra cash, as this had previously occurred, or there was a staff person\ninfected, as there had been staff who had self-quarantined twice in the past\nafter concerns that there had been a breach of infection control protocols.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Security in research laboratories\ndoes fail at times such as the escape of Smallpox in Birmingham UK in 1978,\nwhich led to a staff fatality and the suicide of the lab\u2019s director. A SARS virus\nleak in Beijing in 2004 was also documented. There are figures on the risk of\nescape of Potential Pandemic Pathogens (PPPs). &nbsp;It is rare, but remains possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A visiting US team at WIV\nwas concerned at the level of training at WIV.&nbsp;\nIt may have been lower at the lower-rated WCDC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chinese social media\nclaimed that Huang Yanling, a researcher at WIV was Patient Zero. This was\ndenied by WIV and her posture and profile is missing from the website and she herself\ncannot be found.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ai Fen, a top director and\nDr Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at Wuhan General Hospital posted information\nre the infection on 30\/12\/19.&nbsp; Dr Li Wenliang\nwas initially made to admit that he had \u2018lied\u2019 but later died of the virus and\nwas called a \u2018martyr\u2019 by the Chinese Communist Party, a high honour.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chinese scientists mapped\nthe genome of the virus by 2\/1\/20, announced it on 9\/1\/20 and published it on\n11\/1\/20.&nbsp; On 20\/1\/20, they announced that\nperson to person transmission can occur.&nbsp;\nWuhan, with 11 million people was locked down from late January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SARSCoV2, the virus that\ncauses COVID19 has mutations that make it good at binding to humans, primates,\nferrets, pigs, cats and pangolins (scaly anteaters).&nbsp; It may have escaped by an infected animal,\nand it may have spread in the market among the animals before it infected\nhumans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So how did China handle\nthe outbreak?&nbsp; Initially it denied there\nwas a problem, as shown in its treatment of the whistle-blowers, and the \u2018disappearance\u2019\n(?death) of the alleged Patient Zero.&nbsp;\nThey also denied person to person transmission until quite late and\noffended researchers by discovering the genome sequence on 2\/1\/20, &nbsp;but not actually publishing it until 9 days\nlater.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They then did a very\nthorough lock-down as they had had experience of SARS and were very conscious of\nhow an epidemic could spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, the Chinese\nprobably leaked the virus accidentally, tried to cover up, realised that this\nwas not possible and took very strong action locally and nationally.&nbsp; The initial denial allowed time for more\nspread, and the outbreaks in Iran and Italy may have been due to Chinese\nworkers on the Belt and Road infrastructure programme spreading the virus. &nbsp;The conspiracy theorists are probably wrong,\nand the Chinese denials did not help, but the denial of the problem by Western\ngovernments even after the WHO had made the situation clear is just as\nresponsible for the epidemics in their own countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having a world witch-hunt\nto publicise the information above is unlikely to be helpful.&nbsp; Stuff ups are more common than conspiracies,\nand China\u2019s management once it had identified a problem seems as good or better\nthan anyone else\u2019s. If they have actually largely conquered the virus, and if\ntheir economy then starts to one of the first to recover, Australia\u2019s exports\nmay get an earlier boost than was expected which will help our recovery.&nbsp; Why Australia wants to be first in the queue\nto criticise China is not clear. &nbsp;It is\nnot in our interest. &nbsp;To state the obvious,\ngovernments collectively have been slow to recognise the danger of a pandemic\nas there had not been one for a century, and they will know better next time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The major source if this\npost is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/project-evidence.github.io\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There has been a general acceptance that the COVID19 coronavirus came from the Wuhan Seafood market from some of the wild animals there, with a pangolin, a type of scaly anteater.&nbsp; It was a wet market which means that species are sold there raw.&nbsp; This seemed more plausible than the various conspiracy theories that it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[235,195,201],"tags":[33,68,135],"class_list":["post-114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-accountability","category-asia-pacific","category-covid19","tag-covid-19","tag-governance","tag-public-health"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=114"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":452,"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114\/revisions\/452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chesterfieldevans.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}